Population of Germany and of Europe by Replacement Migration

Population of Germany and of Europe by Replacement Migration

– Europe driven to Suicide by a fable from UN

PDF-version: http://www.lilliput-information.com/engaldring3.pdf

Population of Germany and of Europe by Replacement Migration
– Europe driven to Suicide by a fable from UN

2. Germany: http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/ReplMigED/Germany.pdf (can be downloaded in German from the linked site, source 1 below)

As basic fable is being proved it is in English (read below). That is the reason why I chose English.

In 1998 and 2001 the UN-projections the populations of Europe and Japan would decrease in the next 50 years cause by the ageing. This ageing is cause by decreasing number child births in the parent population, that in the same period shows a increasing life expectancy.

I will go through the issue for Germany totally according to UN’s reading on Germany, France and Italy

Finally I will judge the future-scenarios for Germany as UN sets by adding the substantial influence from the sociodemographic element IQ. Skills of ability to work and education are deciding as verified by Arthur Robert Jensen (1923 – 2012) in his book, ‘The g Factor’ (1998).

Past trends
While the total fertility rate increased steadily from 2.16 to 2.49 children per woman between 1950-1955 and 1960-1965, Germany experienced a continuous decline afterwards, to 1.30 children per woman in 1990-1995. As in other countries in Western Europe, life expectancy increased during the entire period between 1950 and 1995. It reached 76 years for both sexes during the interval of 1990-1995, up from 67.5 years for 1950-1955. One of the results of increased life expectancy and low fertility rates is the process of population ageing. The proportion of the population aged 65 years or older increased from 9.7 per cent in 1950 to 15.5 per cent in 1995. The potential support ratio declined from 6.9 persons aged 15-64 years for one person aged 65 years or over in 1950 to 4.4 persons in 1995.

Scenario I, the medium variant of the United Nations 1998 Revision, assumes a net total of 11.4 million migrants between 1995 and 2050. For the years 1995-2005 it estimates 240,000 migrants per year and for the period between 2005 and 2050 a net migration of 200,000 persons per annum. For the overall population of Germany the medium variant projects an increase from 81.7 million in 1995 to 82.4 million in 2005. Thereafter, the population would continuously decline to 73.3 million in 2050 (the results of the 1998 United Nations projections are shown in the annex tables). The population aged 15-64 years would increase slightly from 55.8 million in 1995 to 56.0 million in 2000; between
2000 and 2050 it would decrease continuously to 42.7 million. The share of the elderly (65 years and above) would increase from 12.6 million in 1995 (15.5 per cent) to 20.8 million in 2050 (28.4 per cent). Consequently, the potential support ratio would be halved, decreasing from 4.4 in 1995 to 2.1 in 2050.

Scenario II is based on the fertility and mortality assumptions of the medium variant of the 1998 Revision of the United Nations, but without any migration to Germany after 1995. Compared to scenario I, the total population would decrease much faster, from 81.7 million in 1995 to 58.8 million in 2050, a 28 per cent decrease for the total population. The population aged 15-64 years would decrease even faster: from 55.8 million to 32.7 million, a 41 per cent loss. In the absence of any migration, the population aged 65 or older would increase to 18.7 million by the year 2050. As a result, the potential support ratio in scenario II would decrease from 4.4 in 1995 to 1.8 in 2050.

Scenario III assumes a constant total population between 1995 and 2050 (81.7 million). Keeping the population at such a level would require substantially higher immigration to Germany than anticipated by the United Nations 1998 Revision. Between 1995-2050, a total of 17.8 million net migrants would be needed, an average of 324,000 per year. Such a migration flow would result in a population 15-64 of 48.4 million, and the group of 65 years or older would increase to 21.4 million in 2050. The potential support ratio would decline from 4.4 to 2.3 in 2050. In 2050, out of a population of 82 million people, 23 million (28 per cent) would be post-1995 migrants or their descendants. United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration

Scenario IV keeps the size of the population aged 15-64 years constant at the 1995 level of 55.8 million until the year 2050. This would require a total of 25.2 million migrants between 1995 and 2050, an average of 458,000 per year. The total population of Germany would increase to 92 million in 2050, of which 33 million (36 per cent) would be post-1995 migrants and their descendants. The potential support ratio would be 2.4 in 2050.

Scenario V does not allow the potential support ratio to decrease below the value of 3.0. In order to achieve this, no immigrants would be needed until 2015, and 40.5 million immigrants would be needed between 2015 and 2035, an average of 2.0 million per year during that period. By 2050, out of a total population of 113.2 million, 54.4 million, or 48 percent, would be post-1995 immigrants or their descendants.

Scenario VI keeps the potential support ratio constant at its 1995 level of 4.4 until 2050. The total of immigrants needed between 1995 and 2050 to keep this ratio constant would be 188.5 million, which is an average of 3.4 million migrants per year. In 2050 the total population would be 299 million, of which 80 per cent would be post-1995 migrants and their descendants.
Additional considerations
Net migration in the years 1990-1992 was close to 680,000 individuals per annum. That number decreased between 1993-1998 to about 270,000 persons per year. The net number of migrants needed to keep the total population constant (324,000 per year), or to keep the age group 15-64 year constant (458,000 per year), is within the range of the experience of the past decade. However, to maintain the current potential support ratio of 4.4 would require an influx of 3.4 million migrants per year. This number would be more than ten times the yearly amount of migrants entering Germany during 1993-1998. Figure 11 shows, for scenarios I, II, III and IV, the population of Germany in 2050, indicating the share that is made up of post-1995 migrants and their descendants. By the end of 1997, foreigners accounted for almost 9 per cent of the total population in Germany. This should be compared to the proportion of post-1995 migrants and their descendants by the year 2050: 20 per cent in scenario I; 28 per cent in scenario III; 36 per cent in scenario IV; and 80 per cent in scenario VI. In the absence of migration, the figures show that it would be necessary to raise the upper limit of the working-age to 72.4 years to obtain a potential support ratio of 3.0 in 2050, and to about 77 years in order to obtain in 2050 the same potential support ratio observed in Germany in 1995, which was 4.4 persons of working-age per each older person past working age. Increasing the activity rates of the population, if it were possible, would only be a partial palliative to the decline in support ratio due do ageing. If the activity rates of all men and women aged 25 to 64 were to increase to 100 per cent by 2050, this would make up for only 24 per cent of the loss in the active support ratio resulting from the ageing of the population.

The IQ assumption overturns all UN scenarios
It should be mentioned that the IQ-index or the intelligence quotient is a scientific fully recognized concept in United Kingdom and USA, whereas the elite on the European Mainland very reluctantly accepts the concept that defies the equality ideology, and only very seldom or never uses it. IQ-tests are made occasionally, however frequently in interviews in private companies.
Arthur Robert Jensen (1923 – 2012) verified in his book, ‘The g Factor’ (1998) that data demonstrates regardless of ethnic origin, individuals with IQ between 70 and 90 have higher crime rates than those with IQ below and also higher than individuals with higher IQ than 90, with the peak of crime rates ranging from 80 to 90. The proportion of individuals among the foreign origins in Denmark representing IQ averages 70-90
was 36 per cent in 2014. If the immigration does not change is 36% to 40% in 2025 to 49% in 2052 and 56% in 2072.

But in Denmark the official fertility is certainly no very big problem while the immigrants and their descendants of foreign origins ‘give birth to so-called Danish children’.

The UN inspiration has obvious had no great influence in the open.

Extracts from my 2014 reading on Germany, Norway and United Kingdom on the issue IQ Europe driven to Suicide

http://www.lilliput-information.com/Europe-driven-to-Suicide.pdf page 12, 17 and 19
With IQ average of 90 or less in a group it is expected to top 50% of the individuals in the group suitable for education-training and working. Therefore it has been concluded that they can be taken in this direction in the blind, to bear children, perhaps live on welfare or they just have unrealistic expectations of the recipient country. The fact that almost 53 % represents IQ average less than IQ 90 in 2014 (see page 18 just below the table and diagram 19 A) will increase crime risk /prevalence of crime due to the immigration while reducing training and labor market suitability further in the future in the total group of foreign origin in Denmark, as it is growing.
The result of my assessment is more secure than the result of the so-called census by a representative household survey. I did not have better possibilities for correction because lack of data. This means that the correction could have been better, if the data had been available. Then the described holes under alternative 2 would been filled with data.

If it is assumed that 16,343 mill. of foreign origins in 2012 – as a result of the so-called census shows – a realistic respective share in the status point primo 2015 it is 21 percent of the population, when the correction about naturalization and the descendants of the naturalized from alternative 2 and status relatively is displaced from 11,2 in alternative 2 to 16,3 mill., the development in IQ-average in Germany will change from 98.2 I 2015 to 90.4 I 2072, med 97.2 in 2025 anf 93.9 in 2052. IQ-average drops 7.8 IQ-points in 57 years 2015-2072. Among the foreign origins from 88.3 to 79.6. The possibilities of businesses will vanish because about the half of the population in Germany is not skilled for education or work in 57 years, if the immigration continues unchanged. The was before
tsunami began in the summer 2015.
The share of foreign origin increases to 49 percent of well 105 mill. totally in the population in 2072 assumed the immigration continues as in 2014 with an unchanged division on origins.

Based on 11,171,940 (16.1 per cent) with official status 7,663,628 (10.4 per cent) December 31 2013 the previous division and the number of new immigrants every year in the model. That result in alternative 2 to that 16,431,491 (19.7 per cent) immigrants and their descendants in 2026, of which 7,049,851 (43 per cent of all foreign origins) originate from countries/areas outside Europe and North America. In 2052 31,852,324 (34.3 per cent of the population) and 13,793,068 (43.3 per cent of all of foreign origin). And in 2072 44,5 per cent of the population and 46.8 percent of the foreign origins from countries/areas outside Europe and North America.

Germany has taken so many immigrants from the rest of Europe that low-IQ, that at same time is high-fertile immigrants and their descendants does not obtain a share of more than 50 per cent of all foreign origins, and generally is the IQ-average among the immigrants and descendants therefore well IQ-91 the next 15 years, where after it slowly begins to fall a single IQ-point to 90. We can say Germany has secured even better than Norway, which remains vulnerable with looking at the long run. By this the IQ-drop is delayed in Germany compared with Norway and in Denmark. But the IQ drops 3 IQ-points 2016-2072. Alternative 2 is significantly underestimated, and therefore one more alternative, nr. 3 for Germany is needed. It is based on the Mikrozensus – a representative household survey -, treated in last section page 11, and the result are shown in diagram 10 page 12. It shows 16.3 mill. of foreign origin instead (20.2 per cent of the population December 31 2013.

Alternative 3 shows a drop of 7.8 IQ-points to average 90.4 for Germany 2015-2072. Well the half of all in Germany will be skilled for education and work. Among the immigrants and their descendants with IQ-average 79.7 only 25 per cent will be skilled (cf. diagram 18, page 18). The total population 103-105 mill. shows the IQ-average 90.4 in 2072. The population has 69.5-73.1 plus 8,1-11,7 (depending on the alternatives 1-3) of foreign origin now. This means 105 mill.* 0.46 = 48.3 mill. or 103 mill.*0.37 = 38.1 mill. welfare consumers and in addition an increased number of pensioners that follows the continuing aging among the Germans. The result is that the population has grown 31.9-33.5 mill. with a much larger percentage to provide for. In 2015 there were 6.2-7.5 mill. immigrants and descendants who were not skilled with an IQ-average of 90.9 or 88.2 depending on the alternatives and total11.8 or 16.3 mill. of foreign origin.

1. UN, Population replacement: http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/migration/migration.htm
2. Germany: http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/ageing/replacement-chap4-d.pdf
3. Europe driven to Suicide: http://www.lilliput-information.com/Europe-driven-to-Suicide.pdf
4. David Coleman: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1692968/pdf/12028794.pdf

J. E. Vig, M. Sc. (Economics), 6. April 2017

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